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Theoretical - ASM and CIWS effectiveness
TelQuessir
Posted by trims on the old PDS Website

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It's hard to quote a "number of missiles to kill a ship" in the modern world. The size and strength of both the variety of Anti-ship missiles and the size (and relative technology) of the ship in question both count.

Loooking at modern examples: Both the USS Stark and the HMS Sheffield took Exocet missile strikes, but a decade apart. The Stark survived handily, while the Sheffield died. Both ships are relatively equal in size, but the Stark is a full generation ahead of the Sheffield, both in defenses and in construction. The major cause of the Sheffield's death was the "new" aluminum superstructure, which proved to be unable to resist the high-temperature fires the Exocet hit caused. The Stark's all-steel superstructure (a lesson learned from the Sheffield disaster) didn't melt, allowing this ship to control the fires and survive.

Given the new lighweight armoring of DDG and CG ships these days (usually 100-200 tones of Kevlar-like materials), and the massive damage-control of big ships, a one-hit, one-kill is unlikely (direct magazine hits being the exception). If I was a gambling man these days, I'd go with these generations:

a) small ASM vs sub-frigate: mission-kill & 75% chance total kill
b) small ASM vs frigate: 25% total kill, 50% mission-kill, 25% partial mission-kill
c) large ASM vs frigate: 50% total kill, 50% mission-kill
d) small ASM vs dest/cruiser: 5% total kill, 10% mission-kill, 30% partial mission-kill
e) large ASM vs dest/cruiser: 10% total kill, 50% mission-kill, 40% partial mission-kill
f) small ASM vs CV/BB: 10% partial mission kill
g) large ASM vs CV/BB: 5% total kill, 15% mission kill, 30% partial mission-kill

Small ASMs are the Harpoon/Exocet class, while large ASMs include Tomahawk and Kingfisher.

Modern US carriers and BBs have undergone accidents equivalent to multiple heavy ASM hits, and still remained completely operational. The USS Iowa turret explosion in 1989 was equivalent to at least 2 Kingfisher-stlyle strikes, and it only knocked out the turret. A pod of ZUNI ground-attack rockets blew up on the USS Enterprise's deck in 1969, causing a hole in the flight deck. While it impeded operations, it didn't stop them or cripple the ship.

As an aside, modern torpedos are much more of a danger - one hit is a virtually guarrantied mission-kill on anything smaller than a carrier, and carriers are unlikely to survive more than 2 hits. A total kill is highly likely for FF and smaller craft with just one hit, while DD and CGs run a significant chance of sinking with a single hit.


Oh, and real-life CIWS effectiveness is classified by virtually all countries. Claimed accuracy of 3rd-generation stuff like the Phalanx and Goalkeepers is 100% under test conditions against current generation ASMs. However, no one has any idea how they'd really work in conditions like partial squall, 15-foot seas, multiple vector attack scenarios.

Edited by TelQuessir on 08-09-2005 05:51
 
Old Crusty Commodore
i know of tests with dutch goalkeeper CIWS on several frigates at the test range on Terschelling(little island). at waving seas 3foot swells(on shorelines) and aproximetly 12 knots of wind from the north.
the whole squadron performed admirebly.

Targets were dummy rockets launched from the island dummy aircraft and even old armored vehicles wich had been kept in stock for this reason.
with 9/10 missle intercepts 6/6 airstrikes avoided and all armored vehicles on the beach destroyed(after wich the marines would carry on the exercise into the island)
ExercisePfftantheon
 
revan
In my opinion the Enterprise example is not correct. It was crippled with 20ft. holes in the deck from 500pd. bombs cooking off. In fact it almost sank. Afterward, the "Big E" was forced to limp home. So in a sense it was "Mission killed," at least as a fighting ship.
 
TelQuessir
I've read this account of the sinking of a IJN seaplane carrier during a Tokyo Express run in WW2 - she sank after something like 6-8 bomb hits from fighter-bombers: most likely 500lb. Ship was in the range of 10k tons.

Link to relevant page:
http://www.combinedfleet.com/atully10...ully10.htm
Edited by TelQuessir on 23-09-2005 05:51
 
MarieHawke
I again point to this http://www.navweaps.com/Weapons/WNGER...ennium.htm

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Keep-out Ranges With 1.65 lbs. (0.75 kg) AHEAD Shell
Fighter aircraft/attack helicopters 3,830 yards (3,500 m)
Guided missiles/cruise missiles 2,190 yards (2,000 m)
Anti-radiation and sea-skimmer missiles 1,640 yards (1,500 m)
Note: Flight time for AHEAD at a muzzle velocity of 3,445 fps (1,050 mps):
1.05 seconds for 1,090 yards (1,000 m)
2.34 seconds for 2,190 yards (2,000 m)
3.98 seconds for 3,280 yards (3,000 m)

A starlight sharpshot magical girl!
 
revan
Quite interesting as I had never heard of this system before. Would you happen to know if the system has been adopted?
 
MarieHawke

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Lockheed Martin has become the U.S. licensee to Oerlikon Contraves for sale and manufacture of the gun systems. The USN is currently performing evaluation testing of this weapon system.

A starlight sharpshot magical girl!
 
revan
Sorry aabout that misread the date.
 
revan
You know, I seem to remember an experimental missile defense system that the US Navy was testing. If I remember correctly, when a missile passed a within a certain radius around the ship, a wall of water was thrown up, which would somehow affect the missile although for the life of me I cannot remember if it destroyed it or deflected it. Has anyone heard of this and if so would you happen to know if it was found to be feasible?

If no one has heard of this that is okay, but the one link I have found is disabled and would like to know if anything came of it.
Edited by revan on 24-09-2005 20:10
 
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