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 Coming confrontation between U.S. and China?
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| revan |
Posted on 24-09-2005 20:25
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 Posts: 44 Joined: September 21 2005 |
In the June 2005 issue of the Atlantic there was an article that stated that given the current rate of Chinese technological and military progress, a "cold war" or hot could well occur. I would like to know if anyone has heard of this? Here is a link with related material. http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/review/1999/summer/art1-su9.htm |
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| TelQuessir |
Posted on 25-09-2005 05:35
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 Posts: 2598 Joined: August 30 2005 |
In future, yes. In the present day case however, China's military has a lot of catching up to do if it wanted to match the American military piece for piece. Also, take into consideration for the economic impact of US and China going to blows with each other. A Third World War, or even getting close to that kind of situation would make everyone suffer to no gain. |
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| FastCargo |
Posted on 25-09-2005 05:50
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 Posts: 21 Joined: September 21 2005 |
A US/China conflict is not a new concept. The threat has been around since before the 1980's. We have no direct conflicts as of right now. The biggest thing that could 'draw' us into a direct conflict is if China tries to forcibly take Tawian. TelQuessir is correct, the US and China depend on each other quite a bit economically, a major war would be a net loss for both sides. FastCargo "Pacifism is a shifty doctrine under which a man accepts the benefits of the social group without being willing to pay - and claims a halo for his dishonesty."
-- Robert Heinlein [img]http://home.earthlink.net/~t38fedex/images/Small%20Signature.jpg[/img |
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| Unkn0wn |
Posted on 25-09-2005 19:29
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Posts: 29 Joined: September 08 2005 |
Personally I believe that in a stable trading system and a capitalist society large scale war is not a viable option since it would simply not be good business. This however does not necessarily rule out brushfire wars where proxy states/organisations are used to secure better trading terms (for instance, the USA helps out a revolutionary group in a resource rich, China friendly country in order to install a more US friendly government and ergo US friendly trading agreements.) Just my ?0.02. 0wn3d
b0n3d unkn0wn3d |
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| Methuselah |
Posted on 25-09-2005 21:36
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Posts: 53 Joined: September 07 2005 |
I'd have thought that a China-Russia conflict was more likely. Russia has lots of land and lots of natural resources, and China could make good use of them. Funnily enough this would be a war under marxist terms between two post-Marxist nations. |
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| Kyanor |
Posted on 25-09-2005 22:06
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Posts: 1 Joined: September 18 2005 |
If I remember right the China-Russia border is well fortified by both parties and ownership of the area is pretty unclear. And do you people really believe that US would help to defend Taiwan, the main land China could take it any moment they want and the only way to stop the invasion in any realistic mean would be a nuclear strike against the invasion fleet... I like the sound of that. And currently US Military is out of manpower, money, support etc the only option would be draft and gearing for war economy and that's bad if you want to have any support from the people in the future. And remember China has nuclear weapons and ability to nuke North-America, wouldn't the world love to see that. Of course most wars started when no one expected one, for example WW1 and WW2. And we have a right-wing nutcase with a pretty good and large military in the world atm... hey that sounds familiar... no wait, wouldn't he be... |
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| TelQuessir |
Posted on 26-09-2005 01:32
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Posts: 2598 Joined: August 30 2005 |
On China over the Straits of Taiwan - do note that China has an extremely poor amphibious assault capability, and I would imagine the presence of just -one- USN carrier battlegroup will make a large dent in any Chinese airborne or naval effort. However I believe without US intervention, China can win with just numbers alone, although taking Taiwan itself will be much, much more difficult a task without resorting to NBC weapons themselves. Edited by TelQuessir on 26-09-2005 01:33 |
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| revan |
Posted on 26-09-2005 03:53
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Posts: 44 Joined: September 21 2005 |
In my opinion it is only a matter of time before a cold war of sorts erupts between China and the US. China is re-emerging as a global super power and in my opinion, history has many examples of nations gaining power and wishing to project this power through not only economic, but through miltary means as well. One need only look upon the U.S. for a good parallel. It seems to be a prerequisite to becoming a super power. One wants to project this power as if to say, "Hey I have arrived." This military build up is not just geared towards settling a territorial dispute with Taiwan either. The PRC is investing in diesal and nuclear submarines as well as deploying a new class of destroyers which feature the stolen Aegis battle managment system. One does not build a nuclear submarine and intend it for costal defense. They are built for long duration cruises, sometimes monthes at a time. As far as I know not one country deploys said submarines on home defense. It at least to me is apparant that the PRC has it on it's "to do" list to challenge the US for "control" of the Pacific. http://www.newdefenceagenda.org/index...e=yes~main And yes at this point and time the U.S. would most likely aid Taiwan in a conflict with China. This is our stated foreign policy on the matter. I find this response to the linked article below, quite appropriate. "EnigmaNZU.S. intelligence officials say China stole the technology for the Aegis battle management system by setting up a front company in the United States that became a subcontractor for the Aegis system manufacturer. You don't really think China is busy buying up western IT companies like IBM because it wants to produce consumer products do you lol, it is more likely doing so to steal the underlying technology. actually it doesn't have to steal anything, western companies are falling over each other to build manufacturing plants in China for hi tech goodies, when the **** hits the fan and China decides to exert itself, it has all the production capacity it needs to match the west, all paid for thanks to the gullible and greedly western companies and their shareholders, and PC governments who can only see dollar signs from the expected trade. China only trades long enough to steal the tech involved, then manufactures cheap copies and floods the market." http://www.worldaffairsboard.com/arch...-7095.html Edited by revan on 26-09-2005 03:58 |
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| yasotay |
Posted on 26-09-2005 05:47
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 Posts: 637 Joined: September 09 2005 |
While the chance of conflict certainly exist the economic ramifications not only to both countries, but the remainder of the world are stagering. Even if only a conventional war without CBRN weapons, the collapse of the finacial markets and global economy are assured. Economic depression is assured. While China and the US will remain 'at odds' the assured mutual distruction that exist already (economic) would cause the political leaders of both countries to balk at open conflict. China has a very fast growing economy. The more cosmopolitain China becomes the more homogenous the populaton becomes. There are just as many ethnic factions in China as any other predominantly aggrerian (sp) society. An economic meltdown could very easily cause those divisions to arise and shatter the national body that exist at the moment. To be sure China really does want to regain Formosa/Taiwan and also be able to exert power at least to the Straits of Mellaca, they are far better at prxy war than many think. Ironically the radicalization segments of Islamic societies (who see both sectarian nations as dangerous) has actually brought the two countries quietly closer in many areas of security efforts. Conversly the Chinese efforts to 'control their surroundings' in Islamic Central Asia has pitted them against the US. They realize that American dominance or at least favor in these countries could create security burdens for them if the cool competition warms up. World politics is nothing but a global game of 'King of the Hill' You are either on top trying to prevent others from throwing you off or you are trying to claw your way to the top. Just that simple. |
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